Gemini has received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) licence from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The approval authorises Gemini Titan to operate a regulated derivatives exchange and enables Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to customers in the US. The licence follows an application process that began in March 2020 and represents a regulatory milestone for the company’s US expansion strategy.
With the DCM designation in place, Gemini Titan is positioned to launch event-based prediction markets that allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcome of future events. These contracts are structured as binary outcomes, settling based on whether a specified event occurs. Gemini plans to integrate this functionality directly into its existing platform, allowing US customers to trade using US dollars held in their Gemini accounts via the web interface, with mobile access planned subsequently.
Entry into regulated US prediction markets
Prediction markets are a growing segment of the global derivatives landscape, enabling participants to express views on political, economic, financial, and real-world events through market-based pricing. Globally, prediction market platforms processed billions of dollars in notional volume in recent years, driven by increased retail participation and improved market infrastructure. Academic research has shown that well-designed prediction markets can outperform traditional forecasting methods by aggregating diverse information into a single market price.
In the US, the regulatory environment for prediction markets has historically been restrictive, with limited approved platforms operating under CFTC oversight. The approval of Gemini Titan as a DCM adds a crypto-native firm to a small group of regulated US venues permitted to list event contracts. This development aligns with a broader trend of increased regulatory clarity for digital asset firms seeking to offer derivatives products within the US legal framework.
Gemini Titan’s initial offering will focus on simple, clearly defined event contracts. Over time, the company has indicated that it may expand its regulated derivatives suite to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts. Perpetual futures, commonly known as perps, represent the most actively traded crypto derivatives globally, accounting for a majority of daily crypto derivatives volume, which regularly exceeds hundreds of billions of dollars across offshore exchanges.
From a market data perspective, the global crypto derivatives market has grown substantially over the past decade. According to industry estimates, crypto derivatives trading volume has outpaced spot market volume by a factor of three to five during periods of high volatility. Institutional participation has also increased, with hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, and asset managers using regulated derivatives venues to manage risk and gain exposure.
For Gemini, the launch of US-regulated prediction markets supports its longer-term strategy of building a comprehensive financial platform that combines spot trading, custody, staking, and derivatives. The addition of event contracts expands the platform’s utility beyond traditional crypto trading and positions Gemini to compete in emerging financial products that blend market forecasting with regulated trading infrastructure.
