Shopify and ChatGPT: how agentic AI is starting to monetise ecommerce conversion

We sat down with Chris Jones, Managing Director at PSE Consulting, to learn more about OpenAI's new 4% fee for US Shopify users on sales made via its ChatGPT Instant Checkout – and what this means for AI-driven ecommerce.

We all saw the announcement on US Shopify merchants starting to pay a 4% fee on sales made through ChatGPT's Instant Checkout feature. How does this fee compare to existing payment processing costs?

It’s very natural for merchants to immediately compare that 4% to card processing costs and instinctively see it as expensive. In Europe especially, where acceptance costs are typically lower than in the US, it will feel high at first glance.

But the more important question is not whether 4% feels high in isolation. It’s what kind of buyer you’re actually paying for. Shopify’s own published US processing rates can easily move into the 3% to 5% range in practice once you factor in scheme fees, interchange, cross-border, premium cards, and so on. So, in pure numerical terms, the gap is not as dramatic as people might assume.

It’s also worth looking at how other platforms price demand. Full ecommerce platforms like Amazon, eBay, and Etsy typically operate at take rates closer to 10% to 15%, because they are not just delivering payments, they are delivering customers. Viewed in that context, a 4% fee for AI-driven conversion starts to look less like an outlier and more like an early-stage platform model, where value is being placed on demand delivery and resolved intent, not simply transaction processing.

What’s different here is what the fee represents. This is not a generic payment fee. It’s a charge for delivering a buyer whose intent is already resolved. Someone who is informed, qualified, and ready to purchase inside an AI-native flow. When you view it through that lens, the 4% starts to look less like an outlier and more like a premium on high-intent conversion rather than a fee which should be compared with payment processing itself.

How should merchants view this fee – as competitive or rather concerning?

I think if merchants look at it purely as a cost line item, the instinctive reaction will be concern. That’s understandable. But strategically, this is less about cost and more about value.

AI in commerce has spent the last two years focused on experience, experimentation, and capability. The commercial model has largely been unresolved. What this signals is a shift from novelty to outcomes and from engagement to monetisation. For the first time, a major platform is putting a clear price on AI-driven conversion.

The real question for merchants is not ‘Is 4% high?’, it’s ‘What is a high-intent, agent-sourced buyer worth to my business?’. When discovery, comparison, and purchase are collapsed into a single interaction, the value moves away from traffic generation and towards conversion outcomes. If the agent does the work of qualification, comparison, and intent resolution, the economic value shifts to the outcome. Seen that way, then this is not a fee but the start of AI monetising commercial outcomes rather than engagement metrics.

What makes ChatGPT-driven traffic different from traditional ecommerce interactions, and what might justify this added fee?

The fundamental difference is where intent gets resolved. In a traditional ecommerce journey, the consumer lands on a site and then starts the process of discovery, comparison, and decision-making. In an agentic journey, that work happens before the buyer lands on the merchant’s website.

Preferences are gathered, constraints are applied, and intent is resolved inside the AI interface. By the time the transaction happens, the funnel is already compressed, and the buyer is effectively pre-qualified.

We’re already seeing evidence of this, with data showing AI-driven traffic converting around 31% better than other traffic sources and delivering more revenue per visit. That tells you the value is moving away from raw traffic and towards outcome quality.

Therefore, the justification for the fee sits in the quality of demand – and in commerce, resolved intent is where the real value always sits.

By routing agentic orders through its own checkout, Shopify preserves merchant visibility over the transaction. From a merchant's perspective, control over what type of data is potentially sacrificed in this scenario, and how might this affect the ability to optimise their business over time?

I believe this is where the strategic layer really matters. When platforms sit inside the transaction flow, they gain the ability to monetise the outcome. That’s consistent with platform economics everywhere. Control discovery and you charge for access, control demand and you charge a take rate, and sit at the point of transaction and you can price the outcome.

What changes for merchants is the data dynamic. You retain visibility of the transaction itself, but you potentially lose visibility of parts of the upstream journey. How intent was formed, how options were evaluated, how decisions were influenced. This intelligence increasingly lives inside the AI layer, not the merchant layer. Over time, that could affect optimisation, personalisation, and strategy. Merchants may become more dependent on platforms for demand generation and intent formation, rather than owning those signals directly.

 

About the author

Chris Jones manages PSE Consulting’s business and is well known in the UK and EU for his regular insights into payments innovation. He has spent the last 20+ years leading assignments for major clients during his time at PSE and Accenture. His specialisations include customer proposition development, market entry strategies, and enterprise value creation. Chris is a highly effective communicator, with very strong analytical skills and able to deliver recommendations to C-level clients and company Boards. Chris regularly supports major enterprises, corporates, and global digital merchants’ payments, bringing new market perspectives and identifying fresh opportunities for innovation and expansion. He has also delivered payment assignments for fintechs, banks, and processors on topics such as: regulatory impacts, new acceptance methods, open banking, BNPL, gateway/acquirer convergence, and opportunities for M&A and inorganic growth.

 

About PSE Consulting 

PSE Consulting is a leading global provider of payment advisory services to players across the payments landscape. PSE’s expertise has enabled it to deliver actionable market insights and operational optimisation to senior payments leaders for over 30 years. To learn more, visit: https://pseconsulting.com/