Meta has reportedly directed a small team to develop Arena, a stand-alone prediction markets app set to rival Polymarket and Kalshi.
The app would operate independently from Meta's existing platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger, and is described by insiders as experimental but a top priority for the company.
Under the current development plan, users would not wager real money. The app would instead rely on a points system similar to those used in video games, though the company has not ruled out introducing betting with real money at a later stage. According to The New York Times, Meta aims to grow the app by directing traffic from its broader social network, which records more than 3.56 billion daily active visitors across its platforms.
A familiar strategy in a rapidly growing market
The move aligns with an approach long associated with Meta's chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, of identifying rapidly growing digital behaviours and building competing products. Prediction markets have expanded significantly in recent years, attracting mainstream attention during major sporting events and entertainment broadcasts. In 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined USD 50 billion in trades. In 2026, that figure has already surpassed USD 130 billion.
This is not Meta's first venture into the prediction markets space. In 2020, the company launched Forecast, a crowdsourced prediction app built around speculative questions during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. The app used a points system and was discontinued in 2022. Furthermore, the sector has also drawn interest from traditional gambling operators FanDuel and DraftKings, cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, and Trump Media & Technology Group.
Regulatory scrutiny and political criticism
The expansion of prediction markets has brought increasing regulatory attention. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency responsible for overseeing these markets, has seen its staff numbers reduced under the current US administration, even as its oversight responsibilities have grown.
Legal concerns around insider trading have intensified following a 2026 case in which a member of the US Special Forces was charged by federal prosecutors in New York City with using classified information to place bets on Polymarket, reportedly generating more than USD 400.000.
Meta's plans have also attracted political criticism. Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal argued that Meta's entry into prediction markets is consistent with a broader pattern of building products designed around addictive engagement, and called on Congress to advance the Kids Online Safety Act and the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act.
Arena remains under development, and Meta has not confirmed whether the app will be released publicly.
