Research commissioned by ClearBank has revealed that Europe’s instant payments framework is expected to overtake traditional credit transfers within the next decade.
The study projects that SEPA Instant Credit Transfers will become the dominant form of account-to-account payments by 2030 and the second most frequently used non-cash payment method by 2035, representing around 18% of all eurozone transactions.
The forecasts are shaped by the EU’s Instant Payments Regulation, which will require banks, electronic money institutions and payment institutions, including those based outside the euro area, to both send and receive instant euro payments by July 2027. Pricing rules under the regulation mandate that instant transfers must not cost more than standard credit transfers.
Readiness gaps ahead of SEPA Instant deadline
Survey data collected by Celent from more than 100 financial institutions across 10 European markets suggests uneven preparedness across the sector. While all participating banks reported compliance with earlier SEPA Instant requirements, just over half said they already meet the 2027 standards. Most banks nevertheless expect to be ready on time. Among electronic money institutions and payment institutions, roughly one in five anticipates missing the deadline by several months.
Spending plans also diverge sharply. A majority of banks expect total compliance costs to exceed EUR 20 million, with a significant minority budgeting up to EUR 100 million. By contrast, most non-bank providers estimate expenditure below EUR 10 million. This disparity appears to affect product development, with banks more frequently working with corporate clients on new instant payment use cases than their non-bank counterparts.
The report also highlights competitive pressure coming from regulatory changes to the Settlement Finality Directive, which allows electronic money institutions to seek direct participation in SEPA clearing systems. Over 40% of surveyed EMIs said they intend to pursue direct access, and some have already done so. Many indicated they would reconsider banking partners if instant payment services fail to meet expectations.
Representatives from ClearBank noted that regulatory momentum is speeding up the shift towards real-time settlement across Europe. Officials from Plaid similarly pointed to instant payments as a foundation for changes in data-driven financial services. Celent’s modelling suggests that if card, direct debit and remaining SEPA Credit volumes increasingly migrate to instant transfers, annual transaction volumes could exceed 90 billion by 2035.
