The programmable future: how stablecoins are rewriting global finance in the AI era

Dr Ignacio Carballo, Head of Alternative Finance and Senior Consultant at Payments and Commerce Markets Intelligence (PCMI), analyses how stablecoins are rewriting global finance in the AI era.

From legacy to programmable infrastructure

For decades, money has moved on the same infrastructure: SWIFT, ACH, card networks. These systems are reliable, but slow, costly, and designed for a pre-digital era of commerce.

Today, new technologies are building a parallel infrastructure. Stablecoins – digital currencies pegged to fiat like the US dollar – and Agentic AI, a new class of autonomous artificial intelligence (AI), are creating a financial architecture that is faster, programmable, and global.

The financial world is now multi-rail. Understanding these rails shows why stablecoins are emerging as superior:

• SWIFT & correspondent banking – Global, secure, but slow. Payments can take 2–6 days and cost 1.5%–6% per transaction. In some cases, it can be even worse, as highlighted in our recent joint whitepaper with Mastercard on SMEs in Latin America [1].
• Card networks – Ubiquitous, but not optimised for all transaction sizes or corridors.
• Closed-loop systems – Offer great user experience and fast transactions within their own ecosystems, but despite recent initiatives, they still lack true global interoperability [2].
• Interlinked RTPs (Pix, UPI, PayNow) – Represent the next generation of domestic real-time payment systems. Solutions like UPI in India or Pix in Brazil work extremely well within their respective countries, and some are beginning to link across borders. However, such interconnections remain limited and fragmented for now [3].
• Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) – Government-backed digital currencies are gaining momentum through pilots like Drex in Brazil and eNaira in Nigeria. While they offer speed and some programmability, they remain mostly domestic tools. For cross-border capabilities, initiatives like Project mBridge [4] and Project Dunbar [5] are underway, but scalability remains a concern in the mid-term.
• Stablecoins – Borderless, available 24/7, near-instant, low-cost, and programmable. They’re not only cheaper, but also more flexible, more global, and more intelligent – especially when integrated with AI, as we’ll explore later.

Stablecoins mark a shift from money as a static instrument to money as software, embedding logic, conditions, and automation into the transaction itself.

Source: PCMI

Growth meets regulation: from wild west to certainty

Stablecoins are no longer a fringe experiment – they’re now one of the fastest-growing segments in global finance. As of 2025, the total market capitalisation of stablecoins has surpassed USD 250 billion, backed by explosive growth: +46% from August 2023 to 2024, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 76% between 2020 and 2024. In fact, in 2024, stablecoins processed over USD 27.6 trillion, surpassing Visa and Mastercard combined [6].

But what’s fuelling this surge isn’t just demand – it’s clarity. For years, regulatory uncertainty held back adoption. Now, that barrier is rapidly falling. Across major regions, governments are building clear frameworks that signal to markets: stablecoins are here to stay – and they’ll be governed like serious financial products.

Today, we’re seeing a global shift from ambiguity to alignment – with regulatory frameworks emerging that provide structure, guardrails, and legitimacy. The result? Stablecoins are shedding their ‘Wild West’ image and entering a phase of institutional maturity.

In Europe, the MiCA regulation sets a high standard: stablecoins must be fully backed 1:1 by liquid assets, offer clear redemption rights, and hold reserves with independent custodians. This is unlocking new levels of institutional engagement across the EU [7]. Meanwhile, across Asia and the Middle East, jurisdictions like Singapore [8], Hong Kong [9], and the UAE [10] are rolling out robust licencing regimes. Rather than waiting for global consensus, these financial hubs are positioning themselves as stablecoin-friendly environments, especially for cross-border use cases. And of course, the US GENIUS Act [11], proposing a federal framework for issuance and redemption – a major step toward harmonisation across states and agencies.

Despite some regional differences in how regulation is implemented, three global principles are emerging as the regulatory standard:

1. Reserves: Stablecoins must be backed 1:1 with safe, liquid assets – typically cash, short-term government debt, or equivalents.
2. Redemption rights: Users must have clear rights to redeem their stablecoins within a specified timeframe – usually same-day to five days.
3. Independent custody: Reserves should be held by independent, regulated custodians to reduce issuer risk and enhance transparency.

With greater regulatory clarity, new entrants are expected to join the market in large numbers. Now everyone needs a stablecoin strategy. As a consequence, with strong market pull and clear regulatory push, stablecoins are moving from the margins to the mainstream – no longer just faster money, but smarter, safer, and now fully entering the world of regulated finance.

Source: PCMI update from Messari's 2025 'State of Stablecoins' Report [12]

Beyond B2C: the USD 27 trillion problem and the B2B opportunity

While much of the conversation around stablecoins has focused on B2C use cases – from faster remittances to borderless wallets and retail payments – the real inflection point lies in B2B finance. This is where stablecoins move from incremental improvements to systemic transformation.

At the heart of the challenge is a massive inefficiency: trapped liquidity. Global commerce today relies on legacy infrastructure where banks and fintechs must pre-fund nostro and vostro accounts around the world to facilitate payments. The result? An estimated USD 27 trillion in idle capital, earning nothing while waiting to move [13].

In today’s interest rate environment, that has a steep cost. With 5% yields, every USD 1 billion locked translates into USD 50 million in lost annual return. Even digital-native players aren't immune: Wise reports 1.26x monthly turnover, and Remitly 2.23x. In contrast, stablecoin-native platforms like MANSA are achieving 11x turnover, highlighting how removing prefunding dramatically improves capital velocity.

This isn’t just a financial inefficiency – it’s a strategic blind spot in a market worth over USD 150 trillion annually. Stablecoins offer a fundamentally different architecture:

• On-demand liquidity eliminates the need for prefunding.
• Automated settlements reduce human error and operational delays.
• Programmable treasury flows enable real-time adaptation to market conditions.

In this context, as we explored in a recent report, financial institutions are not just adapting to stablecoins – they’re monetising them. Through a range of strategies, banks and PSPs are already unlocking new revenue streams: from transaction fees and FX spreads (lower than SWIFT but scalable) to regulated custody and premium wallet offerings. Platforms like Stripe charge 1.5% per stablecoin transaction, while JPM Coin now processes over USD 1 billion daily. Others are launching white-labelled treasury platforms, offering compliance-as-a-service, and even exploring tokenized deposit models.

But stablecoins aren't just creating new revenue streams – they’re laying the foundation for something much bigger. Beyond liquidity and cost savings, their real potential lies in programmability: the ability to embed logic directly into money. As we’ll explore next, this turns stablecoins from a financial product into a core component of a new digital financial architecture, especially when paired with the rise of autonomous, AI-powered systems.

Agentic AI and programmability: the superpower of digital money

While speed and cost-efficiency (and now regulatory certainty) have driven the adoption of stablecoins, programmability is their true superpower. It enables money to do more than move – it lets money think, respond, and act based on predefined rules. This transforms money from a passive medium of exchange into an active participant in commerce.

With programmable stablecoins, payments can be triggered automatically by specific conditions:

• Supply chain automation: Funds are released to suppliers the moment goods are received and verified.
• Smart escrow: Payments are held and only released when all contractual conditions are met – no intermediaries needed.
• Built-in compliance: Taxes, FX conversion, or regulatory checks can be embedded directly into the payment flow.

This is a profound shift. Where traditional money simply moves through systems, programmable money carries the system with it. Rules and logic that used to live in back-end infrastructure or legal contracts can now be written directly into the transaction itself – opening the door to fully automated financial workflows across trade, payroll, lending, and more.

And this programmability isn’t just useful – it’s becoming essential. As businesses face more complex, real-time operations and machine-to-machine interactions, programmable money offers the control, automation, and precision required to operate at digital speed.

This ability to embed logic directly into money reshapes how transactions happen – making processes automated, conditional, and self-executing. It’s already unlocking value in treasury, supply chains, and compliance. But programmability is more than an efficiency tool – it’s the foundation for a new kind of financial intelligence.

Because when programmable money meets autonomous decision-making, something bigger emerges: a financial system where money doesn’t just move – it thinks. This is where Agentic AI enters the picture.

The rise of Agentic AI – autonomous systems that can analyse, decide, and act – is creating a powerful demand for programmable, always-on money. These AI agents aren’t just tools; they’re becoming economic actors in their own right. And they need rails that move at machine speed.

Enter stablecoins. With 24/7 liquidity, instant settlement, and programmable logic, they’re uniquely suited to serve as the financial infrastructure for AI-driven commerce. We’re already seeing this convergence in action. In 2025, leading financial and tech players launched initiatives to bring Agentic AI and stablecoins together.

Source: PCMI

Together, this new model is forming, AI makes the decision, stablecoins execute the transaction, AI learns, adjusts, and optimises. It’s not just a faster version of traditional finance – it’s a new operating system for money. One where autonomous agents handle everything, from supply chain finance to dynamic pricing, expense management, and investment decisions – all in real time, across borders, and without manual intervention.

Yellow lights: risks and challenges on the road to autonomous finance

The convergence of programmable stablecoins and Agentic AI is reshaping the financial system – but even transformative technologies face headwinds. As this new architecture scales, several ‘yellow lights’ are flashing – not to stop the momentum, but to ensure it doesn’t outpace the systems that govern trust, safety, and stability.

• Brand disintermediation: AI agents choose products based on utility, price, or data – not brand loyalty. This threatens traditional business models and weakens merchant incentives to participate in agentic ecosystems, potentially slowing adoption on the commerce side.
• Ad model disruption: If AI agents ignore ads and rely solely on logic or APIs, current digital advertising models collapse. This disrupts how merchants attract demand and could limit the economic sustainability of AI-native platforms, especially those relying on user acquisition through paid media.
• Regulatory fragmentation: While regulatory clarity is improving, global consistency remains elusive. The EU, US, and Asia apply different rules on stablecoin issuance, reserve types, and custody requirements. This fragmentation creates friction for cross-border scalability, increases compliance costs, and leaves institutions navigating a patchwork of evolving standards.
• Fraud and synthetic identities: Autonomous systems are vulnerable to deepfakes, synthetic identities, or manipulated data inputs. Without new trust frameworks, these risks could lead to loss of confidence in automated financial flows, especially in cross-border or high-value use cases powered by stablecoins.
• Regulatory fragmentation: While regulatory clarity is improving, global consistency is still lacking. The EU, US, and Asia apply different rules on issuance, reserves, and custody. This may create friction for cross-border use of stablecoins, drive up compliance costs, and complicate integration for AI agents operating across markets. Without harmonisation, it’s harder to scale programmable, autonomous finance globally – especially for multinational institutions or AI-driven platforms.

Final thoughts: building competitive advantage in a programmable future

In the financial architecture that’s emerging, stablecoins aren’t optional – they’re fuel. Programmable, liquid, and globally scalable, stablecoins are becoming the default settlement layer for digital finance. As money becomes code, and systems become autonomous, stablecoins are the rails that everything else will run on. We’re entering an era where finance operates at machine speed, and competitive advantage is defined not by size or incumbency, but by adaptability, intelligence, and infrastructure readiness.

From my perspective, this is a rare moment – a structural shift that opens new ground. Institutions that act early will define standards, capture new revenue streams, and help build the architecture others will depend on.

To lead in this programmable future, firms must focus on five imperatives:

• Prepare for interoperability – Master the coexistence of SWIFT, RTP, and stablecoins.
• Adopt programmability – Move beyond automation-as-efficiency toward automation-as-architecture. Don’t get stuck on legacy tech.
• Empower AI – Build for a world where autonomous agents are not edge cases, but core users.
• Stablecoins are going mainstream, move early – The infrastructure is being laid now. Waiting means playing catch-up. The window to differentiate is closing.
• Collaborate! Partnerships will define winners – The next generation of financial systems will be co-created, not controlled. No one builds the future of finance alone.

Stablecoins won’t destroy traditional finance – but they will reshape it. They will unlock capital, streamline treasury, and enable entirely new models of programmable, intelligent commerce. Paired with Agentic AI, they form a dynamic infrastructure where decisions are made, executed, and optimised in real time. The firms that recognise this moment, lean in, and build accordingly will be the ones who won’t just survive the shift – they will lead it.

 

About the author

Ignacio Carballo, Head of Alternative Finance and Senior Consultant at PCMI, leads consulting engagements for the world’s most innovative institutions, helping them build a more inclusive and responsible financial system while maintaining a competitive edge in the market. Prior to joining PCMI, Ignacio spearheaded several research projects for private, public, and multilateral organisations. He is a professor at various universities in LATAM and serves as Director of the Center of Alternative Finance for Latin America at Universidad Católica Argentina, Business School.

 

About PCMI

PCMI is an advisory group focused on the global payments industry, with over 30 years of experience providing market intelligence to global corporations, having executed over 500 client engagements in the payments industry since 1991. PCMI performs custom strategic engagements, including market sizing, opportunity benchmarking, market entry, customer insights, and more, covering over 50 global markets in the Americas, EMEA, and APAC regions.