Fraud expert Dajana Gajic-Fisic provides valuable input and step-by-step tips for merchants to display an efficient fraud prevention strategy ahead of the holiday season.
The holiday season — different for every industry
Every industry has its own version of a holiday rush. For travel companies, it might be summer, and, for tax software providers, early spring. But for most ecommerce merchants, the official holiday season begins with Black Friday in November and lasts through the rest of the year. During these few weeks, ecommerce businesses experience a dramatic surge in customer activity. Statistics consistently show that up to 50% of annual revenue for many online retailers comes during November and December. However, with that volume comes both opportunity and challenge — and preparation becomes the deciding factor between record-breaking success and operational chaos.
The double-edged sword of holiday growth
Increased traffic, increased risk
As site traffic and transaction volume skyrocket, so do fraud attempts. Fraudsters know that during the holidays, fraud teams are stretched thin, rule thresholds are loosened to accommodate higher sales, and the pressure to approve legitimate orders quickly is intense. What’s considered suspicious in July might look perfectly normal in December. For instance, a surge in orders from the same household could mean family gifting rather than account takeover. This seasonal behaviour shift means fraud systems must adapt according to the circumstances and that year-round rules may not work.
The challenge? Balancing fraud prevention with an exceptional customer experience, as no one wants to lose good customers to false declines just when they’re most eager to buy.
Planning ahead: building a holiday fraud strategy
The best way to manage the chaos is to plan early. If you start in October, you’re already late. Holiday planning should begin with a review of last year’s performance — what worked, what didn’t, and what you learned. Then, by October the following year, you should be actively building and testing your new strategy. Whether you rely on rule-based systems or machine learning (ML) models, the goal is to adapt them for holiday patterns. For rule-based setups, create a holiday-specific rule set that accounts for increased gifting, promo activity, and guarantee delivery dates. For ML-driven systems, collaborate with your vendor to adjust risk thresholds and retrain models with seasonal data.
You should also consider combining both with internal monitoring: tweak alert thresholds, automate anomaly detection, and maintaining human oversight for high-risk events. Cross-functional collaboration is key, as no fraud team operates in isolation. Work with marketing, operations, payments, and customer service to align campaigns, promotions, and shipping timelines.
A holiday readiness framework
As a merchant, a successful holiday season implies pre-season preparation, in-season execution, and a post-holiday wrap-up that consists of this season’s learnings as a good starting point for next season’s preparations.
Pre-holiday prep
- Forecast volumes: model expected order and fraud alert volumes using prior data.
- Staffing coverage: extend working hours, cross-train backup staff, and maintain an escalation contact list to stay ahead of order surges or demanding customers.
- System check: stress-test your fraud tools, refresh decision rules, and validate allowlists/denylists.
- Policy alignment: sync with customer service on returns, refunds, and exceptions.
- Comms plan – Establish a daily reporting cadence to leadership for visibility.
In-season execution
- Live monitoring: maintain dashboards for approval rate, fraud rate, and manual review queues.
- Alert triggers: watch for anomalies in KIRs (Key Risk Indicators)
- Daily huddles: hold short stand-ups to fine-tune rules in real time.
- Collaboration: keep customer support and payments teams connected through a rapid-response channel.
- Incident playbook: predefine steps to respond to coordinated fraud attacks.
Always make sure to have a Plan B and Plan C!
Post-holiday wrap-up
- Chargeback review: identify trends by product, region, or payment type.
- Rule performance: assess false positives/negatives and optimise your models.
- ROI reporting: quantify the number of fraud prevented orders vs. the saved good orders.
- Knowledge capture: document new tactics and update internal playbooks.
- Team debrief: conduct a lessons-learned session to shape next year’s plan.
Conclusion: plan, collaborate, and stay alert
The holiday season is both a test and an opportunity. The brands that thrive are those that plan early, collaborate across teams, and stay vigilant through dynamic, risk-based monitoring. By aligning the latest fraud prevention tools with proper customer experience, you can protect revenue, preserve trust, and deliver a smooth, joyful shopping experience.
Want to find out more about holiday fraud and the impact of AI on this field? Join Dajana and experts from Riskified in un upcoming webinar on 12 November!
Here’s to a successful and safe holiday season ahead!
About the author
Dajana Gajic-Fisic is VP of Fraud Strategy for The Wolfe Companies LLC and has been in the fraud industry for over 20 years. Currently, Dajana oversees risk operations and oversees payment security, transactional fraud screening, ATO, policy abuse, and any additional post fulfilment risks to which merchants may be exposed. During her career, Dajana had the opportunity to work with reputable retail brands, as well as financial institutions, including JD Sports, Versace, Hugo Boss, Nars, Shiseido, La Prairie, Puma, The Limited, MCM, Cole Haan, Barclaycard US, and Macy’s CCCS. For having a unique approach towards fraud and successes that followed, Dajana was named by Retail Info Systems the 2019 Industry Pacesetter. In 2020, Dajana’s fraud team has been named Merchant Fraud Team of the year, for the continuous training and support to the fraud fighting community. In 2022, Dajana has been named Titan of Ecommerce by Riskified for her vision and contributions to the fraud fighting industry.
