The digital age has transformed how customers shop and consume goods and services. Ecommerce, once a niche market, has gained popularity, reshaping the retail landscape worldwide. Driven by technological advancements, changing consumer behaviour, and global economic trends, ecommerce is experiencing unprecedented growth. This article will explore the emerging trends driving the digital shift and its profound impact on the global digital economy. The total transaction value of global ecommerce is expected to grow by 10% CAGR from 2024 to 2030 to USD 13 trillion, as illustrated in Figure 1.
Figure 1
As technology evolves, we can expect diverse digital payment methods to emerge. The growth of alternative payment methods (APMs) in the last 15 years has been extraordinary, caused by a diverse set of local circumstances, funding sources, technologies, and use cases. The methods that become most popular will depend on consumer preferences, technological advancements, regulatory regimes, and merchant adoption. The future of ecommerce will eliminate the traditional plastic payment card. Consumers already pay for products and services online using mobile wallets such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Samsung Pay. Today, these may be ‘containers’ for a payment card account, however, the expectation for future ecommerce preference will be driven by the convergence of Open Banking and real-time payments (RTPs).
In 2023, APMs accounted for around 50% of online purchases, compared to card payments, and in 2024 they are projected to amount to 66% of the total global ecommerce value. Furthermore, they are predicted to expand and account for 82% of the total global ecommerce value by 2030 – as illustrated in Figure 2.
Figure 2
In 2023-2024, industry experts acknowledge that the global payments landscape is transforming, driven by the convergence of Open Banking and RTPs. As consumers demand faster, more convenient, and personalised financial services, these technologies reshape how they transact and interact with digital money. From emerging markets to established economies, the adoption of Open Banking and real-time account-to-account (A2A) payments is accelerating. Over the next five years, financial services are expected to become more accessible, inclusive, and innovative. As the ecommerce industry is changing rapidly, by 2030 we will experience a period of unprecedented innovation and disruption, far surpassing the advancements of the past 15 years. Payments are only a part of that change. Some technologies that exist today, such as virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR) and artificial intelligence (AI), will play an important role in shaping the consumer’s ‘payment experience’ and shopping journey in the future.
The emerging trends and drivers of change that will impact ecommerce include:
Localisation and personalisation,
Open Banking and real-time A2A payments,
Payment orchestration,
Regulators,
Tokenization,
VR, AR, and AI.
The customer’s online shopping journey typically follows five stages (see Figure 3). We will examine these stages through the ecommerce experience to see where and how these emerging trends impact the journey.
Figure 3
The consumer journey typically begins with product discovery. This is the initial stage, where a potential customer becomes aware of a product or service that meets their needs or interests. This can happen in several ways, either through online search, social media, email marketing, blogs and articles, and in-store experiences. The starting point for product discovery is rarely the same.
VR and AR are expected to transform online shopping, making it more immersive, personalised, and convenient. Customers can virtually try on clothes, accessories, or even makeup, getting a realistic sense of how products will look on them. AR can allow customers to view products in 3D from different angles and environments, giving them a better understanding of their size, shape, and features. Anyone buying via Amazon or Ikea can visualise a product or a piece of furniture in their own home.
AI algorithms can analyse large amounts of customer data to provide highly personalised product recommendations. You can experience this now with Amazon’s Rufus, an AI-powered shopping assistant that helps customers find the products they’re looking for. Essentially, it’s a chatbot integrated into Amazon’s website and app that can answer questions from consumers and provide recommendations. Customers can ask Rufus anything related to shopping, such as ‘What are the best laptops for students?’ or ‘Show me gluten-free protein powders.’ Rufus makes recommendations using its extensive knowledge of Amazon’s product catalogue and customer reviews.
Figure 4: Rufus at work
Rufus is expected to make shopping a more efficient and enjoyable experience by providing personalised assistance and recommendations. This is only just the beginning of the use of AI. At Edgar, Dunn & Company (EDC), as part of our client engagement, we interviewed an online fashion retailer operating across Southeast Asia. This merchant uses AI to drive specific consumer checkout behaviours, detailed more in the ‘checkout stage’ below.
Cultural nuances and regional preferences can also play a role in the ‘add to cart’ or ‘add to shopping basket’ stage. In certain parts of the US, ‘cart’ is more commonly used, while ‘basket’ might be more prevalent in other regions. Ultimately, the decision to use ‘cart’ or ‘basket’ is often made to provide a more localised and user-friendly customer experience. By using familiar and culturally relevant terms, ecommerce platforms can improve customer satisfaction and engagement. Localisation in ecommerce has become extremely sophisticated when adapting a website or app to meet specific customer needs and preferences in different regions or countries.
Translating the web shop or app into the native language of the target market is a basic requirement. Other important aspects are using the local currency for pricing and payments, considering cultural differences in design, colours, imagery, and messaging, and ensuring smooth shipping and delivery processes that comply with local regulations. One EDC client refunded customers in cash when the original payment method was made in cash. In this use case, the customer paid at the store when collecting a product reserved online. If the customer returned an unwanted item, the refund was sent by courier (as cash) to the customer’s address. This was one of the most complex and expensive operations, riddled with operational inefficiencies, especially when the customer was not at home.
Localisation also involves including payment methods commonly used in the target market. Don’t offer iDEAL to a Chinese consumer or Alipay to a Dutch consumer. Providing customer support in the local language and time zone is also expected. Lastly, adhering to local laws and regulations, such as data privacy and consumer protection, adds further complexity to operating in multiple markets, yet this will differentiate an online shop in a very crowded and competitive ecommerce market.
As consumers spend more time on social media, ‘shoppable ads’ allow them to learn about and purchase products through adverts. Traditional online advertising redirects consumers to a brand’s website, whereas shoppable ads allow consumers to complete their purchase without leaving the social media app. This effectively squeezes the ‘add to cart’, ‘checkout’, and ‘purchase stages’ into a single purchase stage of the ecommerce journey as shown in Figure 5.
Shoppable ads are an important part of social commerce and there is a wide range of survey data on their effectiveness. According to marketing firm Acxiom, 60% to 70% of consumers who use shoppable ads say these ads enable them to buy products and services more efficiently.
The checkout stage is often mistakenly seen by merchants as the final stage of the ecommerce customer journey. While it may be where the customer confirms their order and provides their payment information, it is only halfway through the journey. The customer must also enter their shipping address, including their name, and checks happen in the background to ensure information accuracy. Payment wallets streamline the checkout process in ecommerce by offering several key benefits to consumers, and this is what ‘click to pay’ from main card schemes is doing. PayPal, Apple Pay, Google Pay, Pix, GrabPay, Amazon Pay, Bizum, Wero, and many other payment wallet solutions all securely store the shipping address and customers’ payment card details, eliminating the need to manually enter them each time the customer is at the checkout stage. This saves time and reduces the risk of errors.
We expect to see more wallets integrate loyalty and rewards programmes – powered by account issuers, merchants, or coalition programmes – allowing customers to earn points or other benefits for their purchases or redeem rewards when transacting. These programmes will remove the need for customers to remember which one is applicable for which brand and retailer. AI will analyse customer data to determine the most relevant loyalty programmes and payment methods, based on their preferences, spending habits, and purchase history.
‘Contextual payments’ refer to payment journeys tailored to a specific situation or the context of a transaction. One familiar example is the Uber experience, as the Uber payment is contextual.
Other examples may include an online retailer offering different payment options based on the purchased product. They might offer instalment payments for high-value items, or flexible payment options for subscriptions. Another instance would be customer preference-based payments, where AI-powered systems can analyse customer data to determine their preferred payment methods and offer personalised recommendations. Online fashion retailer Zalora, which operates across Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, uses AI to drive specific consumer checkout behaviours based on previous shopping journeys. This helps the online retailer have more efficient back-end operations by leveraging data from the AI-powered customer service chatbot to provide seamless and personalised customer support.
The consumers’ decision to purchase online can be highly emotional. It involves weighing factors like price, quality, and perceived value. Retailers can implement several strategies to make this process smoother. Today, they enhance the shopping experience by personalising recommendations, prioritising trust and security, optimising user experience, providing excellent customer support, and offering flexible payment options. These strategies help customers feel more confident and comfortable.
One of the current challenges for consumers and online merchants is making the right choice that benefits them both, as the number of APMs is constantly growing. Within each payment category, such as international or domestic payment cards, mobile wallets, bank transfers, BNPL, and cryptocurrencies, countless specific payment methods are available in different regions and countries. Cash on delivery will be history by 2030, while new payment methods are constantly emerging, making it challenging for merchants and payment service providers (PSPs). Based on recent research conducted by EDC, 77% of the wallet transaction value in APAC is funded by a bank account, 98% are by payment cards in North America, LATAM, MEA, and 88% in Europe. By 2030, the preference of consumers from the West to fund digital wallets with a payment card is expected to shift towards bank account funding. The digital wallet transaction value in the West will be 24% to 30% funded by bank accounts, an increase from the current 2% to 12%. This will be driven by increased Open Banking and A2A RTP adoption.
In the last five years, ecommerce has seen the emergence of third-party payment orchestration providers (POPs), which can be a valuable tool for merchants. It is not necessarily a new concept, as over 10-15 years ago it was happening within the merchants’ IT department, where they were building multi-acquiring or multi-gateway solutions. However, with new APMs gaining a share of the consumer’s wallet, especially BNPL, there was a need to centralise and manage multiple payment methods, gateways, and acquirers. What payment orchestration delivers today is a small portion of what they will in the next five years. We believe POPs will consolidate, as too many today serve too few markets or only specific verticals. The power of a POP will be data – their capabilities will expand a hundredfold once their product roadmaps include a unified data view, reporting and reconciliation, dispute management, and fraud prevention. Whether a POP needs to serve both online and in-store transactions is debatable, and there will not be a truly omnichannel POP within this timeframe.
Payment orchestration can give valuable data insights into customer behaviour and payment preferences, and combining payment orchestration with AI will offer merchants significant benefits. AI will analyse customer data to recommend the most suitable payment methods based on their preferences, purchase history, and location. AI algorithms will be able to detect and prevent fraudulent transactions more effectively, reducing chargeback rates, and protecting merchants from financial losses. AI will also dynamically route transactions to the most efficient payment gateways based on factors like transaction volume, processing speed, authorisation rates, and cost.
POPs will soon leverage the transaction data across many markets and merchant verticals and combine it with AI decisioning. Today, no provider combines payment orchestration with AI to empower ecommerce merchants to make data-driven decisions, optimise their operations, and provide a superior customer experience.
The third main change theme in the purchase stage of the ecommerce merchant will be network tokens, such as those from Visa or Mastercard. They will offer several benefits, and other payment methods beyond cards, such as A2A payments, will adopt their own version of network tokens. The current challenge with network tokens is that they are not fully rolled out. As technology advances and digital payments become more prevalent, network tokens will become even more ubiquitous. Tokenization improves security and user experience in most ecommerce transactions. As online fraud-to-sales ratios remain high, tokenization will continue to help that ongoing battle. This is an ideal place to introduce the last emerging theme in the purchase stage of the ecommerce customer journey: Open Banking underpinned by RTP.
Open Banking, a regulatory framework that allows third-party providers (TPPs) to access customer financial data with their consent, offers several benefits to ecommerce. However, fraud could damage the trust and adoption of Open Banking. Open Banking and real-time A2A payments will give consumers a simplified purchase experience. Customers can authorise payments directly from their banking apps, eliminating the need to manually enter card details. Often initiated by scanning a QR code, Open Banking can reduce transaction times, improving the overall customer experience. Biometric authentication or other strong security measures can be used to verify payments, reducing the fraud risk. Soon, issuer banks will play a greater role in using customer data to offer tailored promotions and discounts, increasing customer engagement. Real-time A2A payment transfers are gaining traction across the globe, revolutionising how individuals and businesses transact. The UK’s Pay by Bank, built on the Faster Payments Service, alongside Bizum (Spain), UPI (India), Pix (Brazil), DuitNow (Malaysia), PayTo (Australia), or PayNow (Singapore) are part of the growing list of A2A RTP solutions worldwide. Online merchants are paying more attention to this alternative payment phenomenon.
However, there are some challenges associated with A2A payments. In the UK, Europe, and Asia, scammers are using emails or text messages that appear to be from legitimate businesses, tricking victims into clicking on malicious links or initiating a real-time push bank transfer. Known as authorised push payment (APP) fraud, this type of financial crime involves activities that trick people into initiating a payment to a fraudster’s bank account. One common instance within this category is dating scams – individuals establish romantic relationships online or through dating apps to defraud their victims using RTP transfers. With pension transfer scams, criminals convince individuals to transfer their pension savings to a fraudulent investment scheme or account. These scams often promise high returns with little or no risk, but the victims’ funds are often lost. Victims of RTP scams usually suffer significant financial losses, leading to frustration and distrust. Marketplace scams have become increasingly prevalent in online marketplaces. Regulators are implementing new legislation to address these issues.
In the post-purchase phase, the customer has received the product or service. Regulators will continue to be vital in shaping the ecommerce landscape by promoting innovation, ensuring consumer protection, and fostering a competitive and trustworthy environment. While Open Banking and Embedded Finance are important aspects of their efforts, they also focus on broader issues such as data privacy, cross-border trade, and fair competition.
The future of ecommerce is bright, with exciting and innovative opportunities for consumers and online merchants. By embracing technological advancements, understanding changing consumer behaviours, and navigating the evolving regulatory landscape, online merchants can position themselves for success in the years to come.
This editorial piece was first published in The Paypers' Global Ecommerce Report 2025, which provides a complete overview of key trends and strategies to help businesses worldwide succeed. Download your free copy today to explore in-depth insights on global ecommerce trends, the latest innovations in payment solutions, and strategies to stay ahead in a competitive market.
Mark Beresford is a Director at Edgar, Dunn & Company and has over 25 years of strategic consulting experience in the payments sector. He is responsible for the company’s retailer and merchant payments practice, working with omnichannel merchants and payment service providers across the globe.
Edgar, Dunn & Company (EDC) is an independent global payments consultancy. The company is widely regarded as a trusted adviser, providing a full range of strategy consulting services, expertise, and market insights. EDC’s expertise includes M&A due diligence, legal and regulatory support across the payment ecosystem, fintech, mobile payments, digitalisation of retail and corporate payments, and financial services.
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