Tinkoff rolls out CoronaIndex to track business activity in Russia during the pandemic

The index relies on data from more than 11 million users of Tinkoff ecosystem, including retail banking customers, over 550,000 corporates, and more than 60,000 customers of Tinkoff's acquiring services. The maximum index value of 10 corresponds to the peak of consumer and business activity, which was last recorded in December 2019, whereas a value of 0 would translate into nearly zero turnover or purchases among businesses and customers.

The average value for February 2020 was 7.3 compared to an estimated value of 7.1 for February 2019. In the first working week after lockdown, the index gained 1 point compared to the lockdown period and reached a weekly average of 5.6, which was still lower than in February.

As of May 20, consumer activity in Russia began its recovery. As of that date, average spending stood at 80% of the February average values, up 75% on the reading a week earlier.

The businesses that have embarked on a recovery include beauty salons which are showing a slow growth and reached 40% of the average February turnover. The fashion retail sector also improved, achieving 54% of the February average compared with 39% over May public holidays and 30–35% in April.

Food stores and supermarkets have enjoyed the strongest performance, after a slight decline from March 30 to April 12, they then returned to pre-lockdown levels. Online retail has been on an upward trend, demonstrating an almost 50% increase from March 30 to April 20, and continues to advance.

Sales are seen growing by 20% in the Home & Refurbishment category. Car services rose by approximately 29%.

A slow growth is observed in the Air Tickets category, which improved to 10–15% of the February results from 3–4% during the lockdown period. After May 10, there has been an increase in sales of rail tickets as well. This week, sales of rail tickets reached 35–40% of the February values compared to 10–15% during the lockdown. A similar picture is seen in the Transport category as Russians have started going outside more often and are gradually returning to planning trips.

Yet, hotels and travel agencies have shown no signs of similar recovery so far.