Total retail sales are significantly contributing to economic growth, increasing 4.2% in 2013, according to eMarketer’s prediction, which projects total retail sales to accelerate further in 2014, jumping 4.4% to reach USD 4.732 trillion.
In 2013, retail represented 27% of nominal US gross domestic product (GDP), up from 26.8% in 2012, comparing eMarketer figures against GDP figures from the US Department of Commerce. That share has been increasing consistently since a drop-off in 2009, when consumer confidence was at a low after the recession.
While brick-and-mortar sales still account for a vast majority of the retail market, nearly USD 4.27 trillion in 2013, ecommerce sales are increasing much faster, contributing significantly to retail’s overall growth throughout the forecast period.
eMarketer estimates that US retail ecommerce sales will jump by 15.5% in 2014 to reach USD 304.1 billion, up from USD 263.3 billion in 2013. This growth will represent more than 20% of USD 199.4 billion increase in total retail sales in 2014.
In 2013, retail mcommerce, which includes products and services ordered on mobile devices, increased 70% to reach USD 42.13 billion. eMarketer estimates that in 2014, this figure will increase by another 37.2% to total USD 57.79 billion, or about one-fifth of all retail ecommerce sales and 1.2% of total retail sales.
In 2014, tablet sales will account for nearly two-thirds of mcommerce sales, eMarketer predicts, increasing to nearly 75% by the end of the forecast period.
eMarketer’s data is based on a multi-model analysis of 169 data points gathered from 47 research firms and government institutions. The forecast separates retail ecommerce sales which include all purchases made on desktop and laptop computers, tablets and mobile phones as well as non-ecommerce sales, which mostly comprise brick-and-mortar retail purchases.
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