These are the findings of a new report from Goldman Sachs, which increased its previous forecast for Chinese ecommerce sales in 2020 by 15% to USD 1.7 trillion, and upped its projection of online penetration that year from 22% to 25%, from 16% currently.
Drivers include the expansion of online retail categories like consumer goods, facilitated by upgraded logistics infrastructure over the past two years and the increase in omnichannel; sustained online growth in categories like apparel and electronics into lower-tier cities and rural areas, supported by technology; and the addition of 200 million online shoppers between now and 2020.
Alibaba Group and JD.com have been building out their networks of Chinese fulfillment centers, which are transforming supply chains and slashing delivery times by storing goods closer to a greater number of population centers, according to Goldman Sachs.
Nearly 25% of all ecommerce sales in China are apparel, footwear and accessories, with Alibaba as the biggest seller. Another 20% is electronics and appliances where JD.com and Alibaba’s Tmall each have a 40% share.
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